Could South Africa become the next Zimbabwe ?

Thabo Mbeki with Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe

Here is a 1994 documentary celebrating the apparent success of democracy in Zimbabwe, just as South Africa was busy deciding wether it should hand over from white-minority rule to true democracy.

This is essential history in video format:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR6mwzPjDfs <--- a must see!

------> FOR THOSE WHO WISH TO SUFFER ONWARD WITH MY INTERPRETATION OF EVENTS..... here is my very limited interpretation....


My interpretation and timeline

1980: Zimbabwe's white minority government hands over control to Democracy under Robert Mugabe
........ Massive period of prosperity and Economic boom
1994: Zimbabwe handled the transition succesfully. Whites and blacks have been integrated in most places, including schools (some whites leave for New Zealand etc)
1997: Corruption and many other problems start surfacing
2000: White farmers no longer welcome
2004: Zim economoy in free fall, Rule of law and Freedom of speech no longer applies
2006: People bailing out left right and center, peoples houses get bulldozed down, Economy decimated

All in all roughly 20 - 24 years to total destruction from hand-over.


Now Compare South Africa

1994: Hand-Over to democracy
1996: Worst fears of whites appear not to have been realised, although small numbers have left the country
1998: Crime starts to be realised as a problem, people protest the fact that the death penalty has been removed
2000: More crime, affirmative action causes more white people to leave, public schools start integrating white and black successfully
..... South Africa experiences largest economic boom in histroy
2005: Wide scale corruption starts to surface, Brain drain becomes a major problem
2006: Government in denial about crime, Government minister says things such as "South Africa can learn a lot about land reform from Zimbabwe"
2007: Crime, Corruption is rampant, Quiet diplomacy with Zimbabwe still intact, Government slowly begins to acknowledge crime as a problem (though not a priority compared to other problems such as poverty)

We are now at a CRITICAL juncture in time.

One of the main flaws in Zimbabwe in my opinion was the forced redistribution of wealth and the resultant breakdown in ethics (suddenly white peoples rights stopped to matter, corruption was OK, we all deserve to get rich quickly because we were oppressed before, etc) not to mention total distruction of opportunities and wealth.

The critics might say that the redistribution was not fast enough, and on too small a scale. Yet as the redistribution of farms clearly illustrated, fast forced redistrobution of assets leads to a destruction of those assets - and more importantly - loss of ethics in society ( i.e. fast unlawful economic gains are given preference over hard work and honesty) .... not to mention loss of opportunities lower down that creates a downward economic spiral

If South Africa decides to choose morality and that means
* Realise that massive redistribution of wealth on a wide scale is a pipe dream
* Crime is attacked head on and stamped out (including corruption)
* Incompetence is weeded out and not tolerated
* All forms of racial discrimination is weeded out
* Capitalistic principles embodied in all areas leading to strong sustainable economic growth
... then all goes well and we go ahead, host 2010, and become one of the worlds miracle nations.

If however South Africa decides that
* We simply need to transform faster and more aggressively (i.e. replacement of white faces, transfer of wealth from white hands to black)
* Crime is not a serious problem and need not be directly addressed
* Ethics and Morals is non-sense: It is fair to discriminate against white people when one wants to "right the wrongs of the past", Widescale corruption and immoral, criminal behaviour from top government officials is acceptable
...then we might be on the exact same trajectory as Zimbabwe

Lets consider that it takes 24 years for an African country to destroy itself once handed over from white minority rule to democracy (calculated from Zim), then we can expect total irriversable melt down in 2018. That is 11 years from now. Within the next 3-5 years is the most critical period, and by then it would be clear which path SA will take.

This junction point coincides roughly with 2010. I believe 2010, if successful, will buy us at least another 2-3 years, even if the government does not fix the critical problems mentioned.

If 2010 fails however (international PR disaster due to killed and raped tourists), or the bid is taken away from South Africa ( e.g. due to crime), then the timeline should continue as projected without extra time, and might actually shorten.

Some mitigating factors that counts in favour of South Africa:
* We've succesfully had two democratic elections (Although Zim appeared to have had the same)
* Freedom of speech is unlikely to dissapear over night
* 2010 World Cup soccer economic boost
* Zimbabwe example that we can look at and learn from about "How not to do it"

Also these examples show the two extreme cases. Extreme success, and Extreme failure.

Is it possible that South Africa achieves neither of these two extremes, and simply continious limping along like a wounded animal for the next 50 years without dying ?